![]() We develop a model that permits us to extract an estimate of the path of the bubble and its probability of bursting in any period and demonstrate that the premium behaves as would be expected in the presence of a bubble in stock prices. While previous studies have restricted their attention to the joint behavior of stock prices and dividends over the course of a century, this paper uses the behavior of the premia demanded on loans collateralized by the purchase of stocks to evaluate the claim that the boom and crash of 1929 represented a bubble. In contrast., historical accounts, focusing on briefer periods, point to the stock market of 1928-1929 as a classic example of a bubble. Standard tests find that no bubbles are present in the stock price data for the last one hundred years. Transportation Economics in the 21st Century.Training Program in Aging and Health Economics.The Roybal Center for Behavior Change in Health.Retirement and Disability Research Center.Measuring the Clinical and Economic Outcomes Associated with Delivery Systems.Improving Health Outcomes for an Aging Population.Early Indicators of Later Work Levels, Disease and Death.Conference on Research in Income and Wealth.Boosting Grant Applications from Faculty at MSIs.Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship. ![]() International Finance and Macroeconomics.
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